东北证券–化工行业:未来原油怎么看?复盘过去10年油价核心逻辑的启示【行业研究】_研报

【研究报告内容摘要】 2020年新冠疫情的全球性爆发使得原油出现暴跌,原油负值的出现甚至一度令人觉得原油价格失去了“锚”, 为此,我们详细复盘了过去10年原油价格走势的核心逻辑,我们发现:历史上油价不总由基本面决定,2011-2014年基本面供需双弱、金融属性既推升了油价的波动性,也推高了油价中枢,核心原因在于增量资金抢夺了边际定价权。2011年全球受欧债危机等因素影响,GDP增速下滑,原油需求增量下滑明显,但市场端对于供给端的地缘政治事件炒作之风尤甚,美联储对于商业银行“现货+衍生物”的许可使得增量资金大量进入期市,夺取了边际的定价权,时年商业银行互殴、操纵商品价格报道屡见不鲜。2014年4月,“沃克尔法则”的出台宣告了这段时期的结束。 2016年油价触“底” 回升交易的不仅仅是减产的预期,更是供需两侧的超预期:“底” 的形成都是预期加速悲观的结果,通常伴随着供需两面的压力,这次也不例外。复盘上一轮油价“底”之后的反弹,我们发现: 1)减产只能从情绪面上改善油价,但无法推升油价中枢; .2)油价的反弹的真正原因在于需求,2016年油价的小幅反弹更多反映的是供需两面的“超预期”, 而2017年油价上涨的核心原因在于全球库存周期引领下的补库需求。 对比上一轮原油价格周期,现在仍处于被动去库存阶段:现在的原油价格市场更像是2016年年中的时候,大幅减产使得累库在情绪面有所缓和,但真正的“去库”还需等到三季度需求的复苏。未来原油运行的主逻辑仍是去库,OPEC+的减产执行率不必过分强调,这是库存压力下的必然结果。 从投资机会上看,炼化企业通常伴随原油价格同时触底,伴随着原油价格的企稳回升,炼化企业通常有不错的收益。油服企业国内外分化严重,海外机会寥寥,但国内可适当关注能源安全概念下的机会。推荐布局荣盛石化、中海油服、恒力石化、桐昆股份等风险提示:疫情二次爆发、经济持续下滑、业绩不达预期

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[Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title] / 10 [Table_Summary] 2020 10 2011-2014 2011GDP + 20144 2016 1 22016 2017 2016 OP EC+ [Table_CompanyFinance] EPS PE 2020E 2021E 2022E 2020E 2021E 2022E 12.07 0.85 0.86 0.97 14.20 14.03 12.44 12.87 0.64 0.73 0.84 20.11 17.63 15.32 13.48 1.57 1.67 1.77 8.59 8.07 7.62 3.92 0.24 0.33 0.42 16.33 11.88 9.33 12.74 1.82 1.91 2.05 7.00 6.67 6.21 [Table_Invest] [Table_PicQuote] -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2019/72019/82019/9 2019/102019/112019/12 2020/12020/22020/32020/42020/52020/6 [Table_Trend] % 1M 3M 12M 7.62% 11.92% 8.50% -0.62% -2.25% 0.74% [Table_IndustryMarket] 364 33476 24927 19.49 1.42 50632 1279 % 52.62 [Table_Report] 2020-02-23 2019-11-03 PTAVS PTA 2019-11-01 [Table_Author] S0550520030002 wurf@nesc.cn 18110073586 S0550118080009 t ianzf@nesc.cn 18611895566 2020-06-30 2 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 1.2014-2016 …………….. 7 1.1.2011-2017 …………………………………………………………………………………. 7 1.2.20146……………………………………………………………………… 8 1.2.1…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 1.2.2. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 1.2.3. ………………………………………………………………………………………… 10 1.3.2014.7-2016.2OPEC ………………………………………… 15 1.3.1.GDP…………………………………………… 15 1.3.2.OPEC……………………………………………………………… 18 1.3.3.—— ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 20 1.4.2016-2017 ……………………………………………………… 24 2.2014-2017 ………………………………………….. 28 2.1.2015 …………………………………………………… 28 2.2.2015 …………………………………………………… 31 2.3.“”“”“” ………………………………………………. 34 2.4.2014-2016 ……………………………………………………………………… 37 2.4.1. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 37 2.4.2. ………………………………………………………………………………… 40 3. ……………… 43 3.1.2019 …………………………………… 43 3.2.IEA/EIA/OPEC ………………………………………………………………. 46 3.3……………………………………………………………. 49 3.4…………………………………………………………………………………………. 52 3.5.“”or“”……………………………………………………… 54 3.6.2020Q2“”Q3“” ……………………………………………………………………….. 55 3.7…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 56 3 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 121 ……………………………………………………………………………………. 7 21861-2017CPI …………………………………………………………………………. 8 32011GDP ………………………………………………………………………… 9 42011-2014 ………………………………………………………………………………………. 9 5“” ………………………………………………………………………….. 10 6“” …………………………………………………………………………….. 10 72012-2014OPEC ……………………………………………………………………………………. 10 82012-2014“” …………………………………………………………………………… 10 92011-2014GDP ………………………………………………………………………..11 10CRB ………………………………………………………………………………11 11CFTCCOT …………………………………………………………………………… 12 12WTI ……………………………………………………………………………… 12 13WTI…………………………………………………………………………………. 12 14WTI ……………………………………………………………………………………. 13 15WTI ……………………………………………………………………………………. 13 162010-2014………………………………………………………………………….. 13 17………………………………………………………………………………….. 13 182011-2014……………………………………………………………… 14 192014-2016GDP ……………………………………………………………………………… 15 202014-2016PMI ………………………………………………………………………………. 15 212014GDP……………………………………………………………………………….. 16 222014PMI…………………………………………………………………………………… 16 232014 ……………………………………………………………………….. 16 242014 ……………………………………………………………………………………. 16 252010-2017GDP…………………………………………………………………………………….. 17 262010-2017………………………………………………………………………………… 17 272007-2016PMI ………………………………………………………………………………….. 17 282007-2016PMI ……………………………………………………………………………….. 17 29OECD …………………………………………………………………………….. 18 30 …………………………………………………………………………………….. 18 3120147 ……………………………………………………………………….. 18 32OPEC ……………………………………………………………………………………. 18 3320147 ……………………………………………………………………………… 19 3420147 ……………………………………………………………………………… 19 352014 ……………………………………………………………………………… 19 3620148OECD …………………………………………………………………………………… 19 372012-2015OPEC VS……………………………………………………………. 20 382012-2018OPEC VS ………………………………………………………………. 20 39……………………………………………………………………………. 21 40Midland ……………………………………………………………………………. 22 41Delaware…………………………………………………………………………… 22 42 …………………………………………………………………………………….. 22 43 …………………………………………………………………………………….. 22 4 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 442015PermianEagle Ford …………………………………….. 23 452019………………………………………………….. 23 462019………………………………………………….. 24 472016-2017 ………………………………………….. 25 482016-2017 ………………………………………………… 25 492007-2016GDP ……………………………………………………………………………… 25 502007-2016GDP …………………………………………………………………………… 25 512016GDP2015%……………………… 26 52 PPI % ………………………………………………………………… 26 53 PPI % ………………………………………………………………… 27 542012-2018 …………………………………………………………………………….. 28 552017 ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 28 562011-2019 …………………………………………………………………………….. 30 572010-2017 …………………………………………………………………………….. 30 58 ……………………………………………………… 30 59 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 31 60………………………………………………………………………………………………. 31 61 …………………………………………………………………………………….. 32 62 …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 32 632010-2015………………………………………………………………………………………. 32 642010-2014………………………………………………………………………………………. 32 652011-2015 …………………………………………………………………………….. 33 662011-2015 ………………………………………………………………………………………. 33 672014 ……………………………………………………………………………………. 33 68………………………………………………………………………………………… 33 692011-2017OPEC………………………………………………………………………….. 34 702011-2017 ………………………………………………………………………………………. 34 7120163EIA …………………………………………………………………………….. 35 7220166EIA …………………………………………………………………………….. 35 7320163EIA ………………………………………………………………… 35 7420166EIA ………………………………………………………………… 36 752014.7-2020.6 ………………………………………………………………………… 38 762016.2 -2020.6 ……………………………………………………………………….. 39 77 ………………………………………………………………………… 39 78 ………………………………………………………………………… 39 792016.1 -2020.6 ……………………………………………………………………….. 40 802014.7-2020.6 ………………………………………………………………….. 41 812014.7-2020.6 ………………………………………………………………. 41 822014.7-2020.6 ………………………………………………………………. 42 832019Brent2018 …………………………………………………………….. 43 842018 ……………………………………………………………………………… 43 85IMF2019 ……………………………………………………………………………….. 44 862019 ………………………………………………………………………….. 44 872019PMI………………………………………………………………… 44 882019OPEC-12……………………………………………………………………………….. 45 5 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 892019OPEC ………………………………………………………………………………… 45 902019 ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 46 912019PMI………………………………………………………………………. 47 922019 ……………………………………………………………………………… 47 932019 …………………………………………………………………………….. 47 942020 …………………………………………………………………………….. 47 9520205EIA ………………………………………………………………… 48 9620206EIA ………………………………………………………………… 48 972020 ……………………………………………………….. 51 98Rystad …………………………………………………………………. 52 99Rystad …………………………………………………………………. 52 10020205OPEC+ ……………………………………………………………………………… 53 101 …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 53 1022015-2020 ………………………………………………………………………………. 54 1032015-2020 ………………………………………………………………………………. 54 1042018-2020 ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 55 1052016-2020 …………………………………………………………………………………. 55 106 …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 56 107 …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 56 6 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 2014-2017 2011-2017 2011-2014 2014-2016CFTC 2015 2 OPEC 2 7 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 1. 2014-2016 1.1. 2011-2014 CFTCWTI 201250% WTI20144 20129 WTI1250/20147 20146OPEC 121 Wind 21  2010OPEC  2011-2014 8 / 58 [Table_PageTop ]  2014-2016 OPEC  2016-20172015 1.2. 1.2.1. 2011-2014BPCPI 186180/ 2011-2014 21861-2017CPI BP 2011-2014GDP GDP 2012 9 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] BP2011-2014100 / 2013Brent150/ 32011GDP 42011-2014 Wind BP/ 1.2.2. 2011-2014 20102015 1201061929 411 220111220122012628 320127 4201312013 10 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 5 6 OPECWind/ EIA/ 20112014 201012 72012-2014OPEC 82012-2014 OPECWind/ EIA/ OPEC 100/ 2011-2014 1.2.3. 2010 2011-2014 11 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] WTI 201420131210 2011-2014GDP GDP 2007GDP2011-2014GDP GDP 92011-2014GDP 10CRB Wind Wind 2011-2014 WTI (US Commodity Futures Trading CommissionCFTC) , (The Commitments of Traders COT)NYMEXCOMEXICECBOT COT(Reportable)(Non-reportable)  (Commercial)(Non-commercial) (Managed futures)  , (long)(short) (spreads) , 12 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 11CFTCCOT NYMEXWTI21 WTI 2010 2010 12WTI 13WTI CFTCWind CFTCWind 2000201150%2014 60% 13 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 14WTI 15WTI CFTCWind CFTCWind COT , , , , ; , CFTC, ( CTA) , 162010-2014 17 Wind Wind 200894 42009128 2011112011Q4 (LTRO)20146 14 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] (TLTRO)20151QE 201312 1 2 3 19981998 Phibro200310 Phibro 182011-2014 20144 20129Cogen trix 20133 200820099 15 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] Phibro2.5(Occidental Petroleum)WTI2014 1.3. 1.3.1. GDP 2014 2014 GDP  2000 5.6%  GDP 2014  GDP 7%-7.5% 20142014 GDP  102017412 192014-2016GDP 202014-2016PMI Wind Wind 16 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 2014 97.6%20143.9%2013 9 212014GDP 222014PMI Wind Wind 232014 242014 Wind Wind 2015PMI PMI/GDP 08 7 17 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 252010-2017GDP 262010-2017 Wind BP 2016 GDP PMI PMI2015 272007-2016PMI 282007-2016PMI Wind Wind 18 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 29OECD 30 BP/ BP/ OECD OECD 20151%OECD 2016 1.3.2. OPEC 20142017 20147OPEC OPEC1127OPEC OPEC3000/ 3120147 32OPEC OPEC/ OPEC/ 2014 19 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] WTI 2014720177 911182015330 3320147 3420147 CFTC CFTC 2014-2016OPEC 2011-2014 OPEC 352014 3620148OECD EIA OPEC 2014OECD2014 5OECD8201311OPEC 20 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] OPEC OPEC OPEC 2014714%OPEC 372012-2015OPEC VS 382012-2018OPEC VS EIA OPEC 1.3.3. OPEC 2014Bakken 65/ 12014 / Conoco Phillips 8080 56.7 EOG 4360 59.9 Marathon 6240 60.6 Oasis Petroleum 12880 60.1 Continental 30030 61.0 Whiting 4540 61.5 Statoil 10170 61.7 Kodiak 6250 66.3 SM 1030 66.5 LINN 370 66.7 Hess 12630 67.0 ExxonMobil 13170 72.6 21 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 332014 66/ 201645-50/30 / PermianIHS 50002017 70009%2018 39 IHS PermianMidlandDelaware 2013Midland 5000-80008000-12000Delaware 4000-50005000-12000 22 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 40Midland 41Delaware Enverus Enverus 20147 BakkenEagle Ford Permian Permian 42 43 EIA/ EIA/ 23 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 442015PermianEagle Ford WindEIA/ 20192019 27-37/ PermianMidland27/Delaware 35/40/ 452019 Dallas Fed 6 50-55/ 24 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 462019 Dallas Fed OPEC OPEC OPECOPEC 1.4. 2016 OPEC2.3 2011-2014120/2015-2017 170/ 2016-201770-100/ 50%201580% 25 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 472016-2017 482016-2017 EIA/ EIA/ 2016-2017/ 2016 492007-2016GDP 502007-2016GDP EIA/ EIA/ 2016 20151%20161-11 6.5% PMI 26 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 512016GDP2015 % Wind 2016GDPGDP 2015GDP0.3%2016 4 52 PPI % Wind PPIPPI201592015920166 PPI 20166 20138210 12 27 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 53 PPI % Wind PPI20159201592016 6PPI 20166 20131127 71-2 2016 2016 20164 2016 2017 28 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 2. 2014-2017 2014-2017  20152  201512 40 2.1. 2015-201780/20152 201713101.3 12845.38017.775.63%256 201540002015 2017400080/ 542012-2018 552017 / 2 2015 2016 2017 1 1100 750 750 2 510 300 300 3 600 350 350 4 520 350 350 5 670 570 570 29 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 6 760 580 580 7 500 500 500 8 325 300 300 9 580 350 350 10 300 220 220 11 410 350 350 12 300 240 240 13 480 350 350 14 770 520 520 15 470 260 260 16 840 590 590 17 385 230 230 18 350 350 350 19 230 230 230 20 530 350 350 21 220 220 220 22 650 650 650 23 570 570 400 24 420 420 420 25 220 220 220 26 220 220 220 27 510 510 350 28 220 220 220 29 440 440 440 30 260 260 260 31 300 300 300 32 300 300 300 33 300 300 300 34 220 220 220 35 266 266 266 36 100 100 100 37 300 300 300 38 200 200 200 39 230 230 230 16576 13686 13356 / 2015 2018/2019 100/ 20163500 2016450010 30 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 201910% 562011-2019 572010-2017 BP/ 58 / 2016 20152 31 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 2.2. 20151218 40 1973 1975OPEC 1979 59 60 EIA EIA 2014740.8167.2 18.41%37.8%750% 200567.1% 32 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 61 62 EIA/ EIA/ 11 15.3 50%API31 0.87API280.89 API 330.8667% 1079.1/531.5/ 2010-2014API 3527API35API 27 632010-2015 642010-2014 EIA/ EIA/ PermianAPI35 75%27API3522%2% Eagle Ford 33 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 652011-2015 662011-2015 EIA EIA 2015 672014 68 EIA/ EIA/ OPEC 34 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 2.3. 2016-2017OPECOPEC OPEC 2 201512OPEC 12050/ OPEC  112Brent 30.83/OPEC  113  11850 5-10%  122OPECOPEC 2016122 OPECOPEC OPEC16 OPEC3 7 OPEC 692011-2017OPEC 702011-2017 BP/ BP/ 2016320166EIA SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK20163 6EIA 35 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 7120163EIA 7220166EIA BP/ BP/ 20166EIAEIA 7320163EIA EIA/ 20166EIA32016  EIA3696.68/95.84 /0.74/0.47 /OPEC0.22/EIAOPEC  EIA36201693.73 36 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] /94.22/0.45/ 0.180.27/2016 94.50/95.10/0.60 / 0.190.28/2016EIA 7420166EIA EIA/ OPEC EIA OPEC 37 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 2.4. 2.4.1. 2014-2015 VLO66PSXPBFPBFMPC 3 Port Arthur 395000 1901 2005Premcor Texas 100 1550/ Corpus Christi b 370000 1983 2001 Texas 1983 1575/ St. Charles 340000 2003 Louisiana 45 80 Texas City 260000 1908 1997 Texas 2 LPG6 1250/ Houston 250000 1942 1997 Texas 201690,000 / 6 1150/ Meraux 135000 2011 Louisiana 5080 650/ Three Rivers 100000 1974 2002 Texas Eagle Ford 500/ McKee 200000 1933 2002 Texas LPG 850/ Memphis 195000 1941 2005 Tennessee 100 38 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 975/ Ardmore 90000 1913 2001 Oklahoma LPG 450/ Pembroke 270000 2011 Wales, U.K. 220,000bp s50,000bps FCC 11.6 1050/ Quebec City 235000 1971 2002 Quebec, Canada 6 1000/ Benicia 170000 2000 California CARBULSD 850/ Wilmington 135000 1996 2001 California CARB ULSDCARB 675/ / 2014.7-2016.1 VLO2014.7-2018.7175% 2014.7-2016.1VLO PBFMPC PSXDKHFC2014.7-2015.10 201512 752014.7-2020.6 Wind 201471100 39 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] PMI2015PMI 2015653.5612 48VLOMPC DKHFC50% 2016.1-2017.1 VLO/PSX/MPC 2017 762016.2 -2020.6 Wind 201471100 77 78 Wind Wind 2018 40 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 20172018 OPEC 792016.1 -2020.6 Wind     VLO 2.4.2. 201472014 41 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 802014.7-2020.6 Wind 2018 200%3 812014.7-2020.6 Wind BP 42 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] EOGPXDCLR 822014.7-2020.6 Wind 43 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 3. 3.1. OPEC+2014-2016 832019Brent2018 Wind 2019Brent2018 20182019  2018  2019 842018 Wind 44 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 2019IMF OPEC/IEA/EIA2019 85IMF2019 862019 IMF EIA PMI PMI 2017 2018 20192PMI 2PIM 505 872019PMI Wind OPEC2019 OPEC2997/2018250/ Q120193201812227.5/ 2019201912 294%250%133%OPEC132% 45 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 882019OPEC-12 892019OPEC 2019  1-5 OPEC+ 4  56  67  786 G20 71OPEC9 7 891 3000 10%  899 916  910 SC  1010 OPEC 12OPEC+OPEC12 46 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 902019 Wind 2018 PMI2018 2019 PMI 914 570/1011 3.2. 20192019 PMI EIA20202019 OPEC 2019 202020202 3 47 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 912019PMI 922019 Wind EIA/ 20202OPEC/IEA/ EI A2020 5EIA2020290 /-813/OPEC322/-907/IEA 860/ 932019 942020 Wind EIA/ EIA 17%83.81/ OPEC 48 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 9520205EIA EIA/ OPEC+ 20206EIASTEO2020 2020 15%OPEC+ 9620206EIA EIA/ 49 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 3.3. OPEC+ OPEC+OP EC+ 2020419OPEC+  202051-6302970/  202071-12316770/  202111-202243016580/ 201810 1100/20224302021 12OPEC+2020610 42020OPEC 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-Q1 2018-10 OPEC 5 974 968 1015 986 1100 847 253 451 459 465 458 465 358 107 208 208 207 208 – – – 303 304 345 317 317 233 72.9 266 266 290 274 281 216 64.6 75.6 76 65 72.2 – – – 176 179 192 182 174 134 40 138 139 140 139 153 118 35.110 101 101 103 102 106 81.4 24.3 79.3 14.6 9 34.3 – – – 19.2 19.1 21 19.8 18.7 14.4 4.3 29.4 30.8 32 30.7 32.5 25 7.5 12.5 12.3 13 12.6 12.7 9.8 2.9 OPEC 1132 1130 1129 1131 1100 847 253 171 171 159 167 202 155 46.4 169 171.6 156.4 166 190 146 43.7 82 82 80 81.3 99.5 76.6 22.9 66 64.5 63.4 64.6 79.6 61.3 18.3 72 69.3 69 70.1 62.7 48.3 14.4 50 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 22.7 17.5 5.2 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 13.2 10.2 3 11 11 11 11 13.1 10.1 3 4575 4517 4606 4566 4449 3426 1023 5 3970926 OPECOP EC5OPEC 584OPEC-10 57275%100% 4289 91% 41%12%-7%47% OPEC OPEC 202067179OPEC 15-6100%7-925-6 13OPEC1130 OPEC+ 61Parsley6 52.6/WTI 40 4 18.68/12/EIA 16 /4/ EIA 5/ 51 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 972020 Rystad EnergyRystad4 27/22/ 12/ 427/16 / 52 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 98Rystad 99Rystad Wind EIA 3.4. CITI41 62.543.4 19.12020452915.78 202017 52020 2020 2020 454 635 1089 334 77 411 828 345 1173 72 195 267 87 20 107 43 16 59 155 – 155 174 – 174 51 – 51 38 – 38 20 – 20 25 – 25 90 290 380 54 – 54 124 82 206 26 40 66 2940 1578 4518 1402 332 1734 Citi, JODI, EIA, SIA, Ursa  EIA1600/ 14.42.6  OPEC+590% 98 EIA620206202112250/ 53 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 182020 OPEC+ 87/8 OPEC OPEC+ 10020205OPEC+ 1 2 3net available shell capacity 101 54 / 58 [Table_PageTop ]  tank bottoms  contingency space  unavailable space  working storage capacity EIAPADD 80%68(60%) 16 5-10% 3-6 3.5.    1022015-2020 1032015-2020 EIA EIA OPEC+OP EC+ 55 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] EIA Q394.92/ OPEC+770/90% 693/201810 2020Q1201810OPEC+117/ 2020810/ EIA2020Q32020Q1 9292/9448/2020Q1 600/Q3200/ 800/ 3.6. 2020 2020 4820 145166.2% 71.7%76% 1042018-2020 1052016-2020 Wind Wind 2020 6 56 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 106 107 Wind Wind 3.7.   OPEC  12  2014-20162016 OPECOPEC 57 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 58 / 58 [Table_PageTop ] 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 021-20361121 13636606340 ruanmin@nesc.cn 021-20361229 17717370432 wuxiaoy in@nesc.cn 021-20361258 18221628116 qijian@n esc.cn 021-20361267 13262728598 chen_ xh@nesc.cn 021-20361258 13120758587 Lilq@nesc. cn 021-20361112 18801903156 lir x@nesc.cn 021-20361133 18516728369 zhoujq@nesc.cn 021-20361133 13122617959 liuy q@nesc.cn 021-20361229 15213310661 jiny ue@nesc.cn 010-58034553 18515018255 lihan g@nesc. cn 010-58034557 18501954588 y inlulu@nesc.cn 010-58034555 13701194494 wenzc@nesc.cn 010-58034563 18501944669 zengy g@nesc.cn 010-63210813 18153683452 zhouy ing1@nesc.cn 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_ xuan@nesc. cn 0755-33975865 15989508876 liuman@n esc.cn 0755-33975865 18516772531 wangquan@n esc.cn 0755-33975865 18620093160 zhoujy @nesc.cn 0755-33975865 18664323108 Chenli1@nesc. cn 021-20361229 18616369028 liy inyin@nesc.cn 021-20361229 15921911962 zhaojiahen g@nesc. cn ]

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