东北证券–银行行业深度报告:美日欧资管行业研究:以摩根、MUFG、瑞银为例【行业研究】_研报

【研究报告内容摘要】 资管行业是集中度较高的行业。2019年全球资管规模是88.7万亿美元。北美地区一-直位居全球第一,占比49%;欧洲位列第二,占比27%左右;经测算,中国占比7%-8%之间,位列第三。全球前20市占率为50.87%,集中度较高。 摩根大通靠专设资管子公司运作资管业务。客户类型包括私人银行、.机构客户和零售客户三类。私人银行/机构客户具有竞争优势,贡献分别是46.63%和34.07%。产品体系覆盖范围广,以主动管理为主, .管理费率在0.2%-2.6%之间。资产管理业务和财富管理业务各占半壁江山,维持比较稳定的水平,北美市场贡献了64%业务收入。 MUFG银行采用“内部公司”管理模式,2019年MUFG股票投资占比为41%、私人信托投资占比为27%、债券投资为8%、 ETF投资为24%,资产配置以低风险为主,另类投资或成为新的投资方向。日本资管.行业靠咨询顾问下的产品销售模式盈利,管理费率为0.12%左右,本土机构依旧具有竞争优势。 瑞银通过各部门协同,将客户财富管理需求挖掘到极致。2019年瑞.银主要投向股票与固定收益,分别为37%和33%,对于更高风险的对冲基金,房地产和私人市场,共占有15%, 偏好投资中高风险资产。资管费率比财富管理费率低0.2%,在私行领域已经形成了坚固的护城河。 结论:经历了一轮资管行业监管规范,理财子公司步入正轨,未来银行可以从四方面迎接资管新时代。 ( 1)私行和理财子公司合作大于竞争,实现双赢。 (2)走精细差异化路线。 (3)提高主动管理能力。 (4)加大金融科技投入,提升效率。 风险提示:经济大幅下行,影响银行基本面.

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[Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title] / [Table_Summary] 201988.7 49% 27%7%-8%20 50.87% / 46.63%34.07% 0.2%-2.6% 0.12% 2019 37%33% 15% 0.2% 1 3 4 [Table_CompanyFinance] EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 12.80 1.54 1.64 1.86 8.32 7.82 6.89 33.90 3.62 4.23 4.87 9.35 8.00 6.95 [Table_Invest] [Table_PicQuote] -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 2019/72019/82019/9 2019/102019/112019/12 2020/12020/22020/32020/42020/52020/6 [Table_Trend] % 1M 3M 12M 0.78% 2.52% -12.06% -7.45% -11.66% -19.81% [Table_IndustryMarket] 36 99135 62162 3.72 0.42 50495 16727 % 91.86 [Table_Report] 191.5 2020-06-23 18 2020-06-16 20205 2020-06-11 [Table_Author] S0550520020001 010-63210892 wangfh@nesc.cn S0550119070037 010-68034575 chenyulu@nesc.cn 2020-06-30 2 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 1. …………………………………………………………………. 4 1.1.19241999………………………………………………… 4 1.2. ………………………………………………. 6 1.3. ……………………………………………………………………….. 7 1.4. ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 2. ………………………………………………. 11 2.1. &………………………………………….. 11 2.2. ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 12 2.3. …………………………………………………………… 15 2.4. ………………………………………………………………. 15 2.5. 0.2%-2.6% …………………………………………………………………………………. 19 2.6. ………………………………………………………………….. 20 2.7. ………………………………………………………………………………… 21 3.MUFJ …………………. 21 3.1. ………………………………………………………………….. 21 3.2. MUFG ………………………………………………………………….. 22 3.3. …………………………………………….. 23 3.4. ………………………………………………………………….. 23 3.5. 0.12%……………………………………………………………………………… 24 3.6. …………………………………………………………………………. 24 3.7. ……………………………………………………………………………………. 24 4. ……………………………………………………… 24 4.1. …………………………………………………………………………….. 24 4.2. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 25 4.3. …………………………………………………………………………….. 25 4.4. 0.2%………………………………………………………….. 26 4.5. ……………………………………………………. 27 4.6. ………………………………………………………………. 27 5. ………………………………………………. 28 5.1. ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 28 5.2. ……………………………………………………………………………………. 30 6. ………………………………………………………………………………………. 30 3 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 1IRA ………………………………………………………………………………….. 5 2401K …………………………………………………………………………… 5 32015-2019 …………………………………………………………………………………………. 9 42018-2019 …………………………………………………………………………………….. 10 5 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 13 6 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 13 72012-2019AUM ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 14 8 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 15 9 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 16 102011-2019AUM……………………………………………………………………….. 17 11% ………………………………………………………………………………. 20 12MUFG ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 23 13………………………………………………………………………………………… 25 142015-2019 ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26 15 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26 16………………………………………………………………………………………… 27 172015-2019 ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 27 18 …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 28 1201920 ……………………………………………………………………………….. 8 2 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 3Top20& ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 10 42020Q1 …………………………………………………………………………………………….11 52018 ……………………………………………………………………………………… 12 6ROE ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 13 7 …………………………………………………………………………………… 15 8 ………………………………………………………………………………………. 16 9 …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 18 10 …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 19 11 ………………………………………………………………………………….. 20 12 …………………………………………………………………………………….. 21 13Top10 ………………………………………………………………. 21 14 …………………………………………………………………………………………… 22 15 …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 29 4 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 1. 1.1. 19241999 1924 1999114 5 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] IC IC 2012Betterment Wealthfrornt 20152019 7497.03 6 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 1. 2. 1.2. 2090 :, ,80% 1900192119221953 195320902090 1900-1921 1922-1953 , ,, 2050 , 195320901953 7 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 7 209090 2001 2005101 2005 2005200720082012 20122015201511 933.3 1.3. 1. 1774 1822 2.1868 17 1873 19 20 8 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 1 3 1998 6 1890 12 1875 13 1816 16 1856 17 1870 18 1836 19 2000 3.21 2019 22.827% 840%1 32814.129 62% 2 1985 UCITS 2014UCITS2016 UCITS 2007 MiFID 20142018UCITS AIFM DM iFID 2011 AIFM D UCITS AIFM D 2013AIFM D 1.4. 9 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 20182017 2.9%201876.9 20172.320192018 15.34%201988.7 32015-2019 201847%201949% 27%2018 14%201913%8% 4% 10 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 42018-2019 () 3Top20& () 1 BlackRock 6,520 7.35% 2 Van guard Group 5,600 6.31% 3 UBS Group 3,256 3.67% 4 State Street Global Advisors 2,805 3.16% 5 Fidelity Investments 2,700 3.04% 6 Allianz Group 2,357 2.66% 7 JPM organ 2,096 2.36% 8 Cap ital Group 1,859 2.10% 9 Bank of New York M ellon 1,841 2.08% 10 PIM CO 1,760 1.98% 11 Goldman Sachs 1,599 1.80% 12 Amundi 1,598 1.80% 13 AXA Group 1,597 1.80% 14 Morgan Stanley 1,596 1.80% 11 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 15 Prudential Financial 1,456 1.64% 16 Credit Suisse 1,438 1.62% 17 Deutsche Bank 1,355 1.53% 18 Legal & General Invest. M anagement 1,322 1.49% 19 BNP Paribas 1,206 1.36% 20 Northern Trust 1,162 1.31% IPE 201951.97 2019 6 95.3 7%-8% 2020 53.75 16.64 30.95%14.31 26.63% 10.4719.47% 42020Q1 6819 166367 30.95% 85058 143123 26.63% 17373 104653 19.47% 5443 41454 7.71% 5477 39970 7.44% 1841 25250 4.70% 1723 16884 3.14% 1161 1642 0.31% 2. 2.1. & 1 2 1 JP 2 12 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 14 13 52018 BlackRock $5,975,818 U.S. Van guard Group $4,866,611 U.S. State Street Globa $2,511,297 U.S. Fidelity Investments $2,424,697 U.S. J.P. Morgan Chase $1,987,000 U.S. Bank of New York M ellon $1,722,000 U.S. Cap ital Group $1,677,381 U.S. Goldman Sachs Group $1,542,000 U.S. Prudential Financial $1,377,269 U.S. Northern Trust Asset M gmt $1,069,400 U.S. 2.2. JPMorganChase1881 1974JP Morgan 67% 40 13 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 2019 ROE31141726 5 6 % 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 21 24 25 31 26 15 16 17 28 31 15 15 14 16 14 18 18 17 20 17 J.P Morgan 11 10 10 13 15 2000JP Morgan (JP Morgan Chase) 2004 14 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 2019 ROE 20% 72012-2019AUM 15 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 8 2.3. 7 17 17 18 18 19 19 1256 45.03% 1274 46.62% 1504 46.62% 990 35.50% 946 34.61% 1099 34.07% 543 19.47% 513 18.77% 623 19.31% 2789 100.00% 2733 100.00% 3226 100.00% 2.4. 16 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 9 17 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 18 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 9 Equity Income Fund Russell 1000 Value Index Lar ge Cap Growth Fund Russell 1000 Growth Index Emer gin g M arkets Equity Fund M SCI Emergin g Markets Index (net of foreign withholdin g Core Plus Bond Fund Bloomber g Bar clay s U.S. Aggregate Index Global Bond Opp ortunities Fund 1550/Bloomber g Bar clay s M ultiverse Index Corp orate Bond Fund Bloomber g Bar clay s U.S. Aggregate Index; Bloomb er g Barclay s U.S. Corp orate Index Government Bond Fund Bloomber g Barclay s U.S. Government Bond Index Global Allocation Fund M SCI World Index; Bloomb er g Barclay s Global Aggr egate Index- Unhed ged USD Investor Growth Fund 90/ 10 / Russell 3000 Index; Bloo mber g Barclay s U.S. Intermediate Aggregate Index Investor Growth & Income Fund /70 / 30 Russell 3000 Index; Bloo mber g Barclay s U.S. Intermediate Aggregate Index Hedged Equity Fund S&P 500 Index; IC E BofAM L 3-M onth US Treasury Bill Index Opp ortunities Equity Long/Short Fund S&P 500 Index; IC E BofAM L 3-M onth US Treasury Bill Index Research M arket Neutral Fund ICE BofAM L 3-M onth US Treasury Bill Index U.S. Government M oney M arket Fund Prime M oney M arket Fund U.S. Treasury Plus M oney M arket Fund 19 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 2.5. 0.20% – 2.60% 0.26%/ 2.45% Equity Income Fund Russell 1000 Value Ind ex 1.01% Undiscovered M anagers Behavioral Value Fund Large Cap Growth Fund Russell 2000 Value Ind ex 1.39% Core Plus Bond Fund Bloomber g Barclay s U.S Global Aggregate Index 0.75% Global Bond Opp ortunities Fund Bloomberg Barclay s Multiverse Index 0.90% High Yield Fund Bloomberg Barclay s U.S Corporate High Yield-2% Issuer Cap p ed Index 1.00% Global Allocation Fund M SCI World IndexB loomber g Bar clay s Global A ggregate Index-Unhed ged USD 1.07% Income Builder Fund M SCI World IndexB loomber g Bar clay s Global A ggregate Index 0.75% Investor Growth & Income Fund Russell 3000 Index: Bloo mber g Bar clay s U.S Intermediate A ggregate Index 1.04% Opp ortunistic Equity Long/Short Fund S&P 500 IndexICE BofAM L 3-Month US Treasury Bill Index 2.45% U.S Government M oney M arket Fund 0.26% 20 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 2.6. 11 19 19 18 18 17 17 7, 254 50.67% 7, 163 50.89% 7, 257 52.45% 7, 062 49.33% 6, 913 49.11% 6, 578 47.55% 14, 316 100% 14, 076 100% 13, 835 100% 21 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 12 19 19 18 18 17 17 //2,869 20.04% 2,850 20.25% 2,837 20.51% 1,509 10.54% 1,538 10.93% 1,405 10.16% 724 5.06% 755 5.36% 702 5.07% 5,102 35.64% 5,143 36.54% 4,944 35.74% 9,214 64.36% 8,933 63.46% 8,891 64.26% 14,316 100% 14,076 100% 13,835 100% 2.7. 1 2 2018You Invest 3. MUFJ 3.1. 13Top10 AUM 1. 100% 34.0 11.620203 2. 100% 1720183 3. 91.3% 26.8201912 4.UFJ UFJ100% 15.37201911 5.Asset Management One 70% 30% 52.9201912 6. 50.1% 23.5% 9.8 7.520193 7. 100% 66.920193 8.Fidelity 100% 3120183 9. 100% 8.2 4.820193 10.Pictet 100% 2.72201912 22 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 14 15%20%45%20%2018 2 3 3.2. 2001 2005 MUFG 23 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 3.3. MUFG beta/ 2019MUFG41% 27%8%ETF24% BCG201816.370%-80% 201851% 49% 3.4. 24 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 3.5. 3.6. 70020183 +224.2120199161.76 20196300 UFJ 44.28% 3.7. 4. 4.1. 1 2 25 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 2011 5 3 201878102190 28% 4.2. 13 4.3. (ETF)2019 37%33% 15% 34%26% 23%17% 20152019 26 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 142015-2019 2003 0820041.98 20183.043.12004 201874.2% 15 4.4. 27 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 4.5. HQLAHQLA HQLALCR1 2017 20192017143%2018136%2019 134% 2015-2019 4.6. 28 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 1 18 2 50-200200-5000 50001 25-100 100-10001000 3+1934 5. 5.1. 29 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 30 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] 5.2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 31 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 32 / 32 [Table_PageTop ] http://www.nesc.cn400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 021-20361121 13636606340 ruanmin@nesc. cn 021-20361229 17717370432 wuxiaoy in@nesc.cn 021-20361258 18221628116 qijian@n esc.cn 021-20361267 13262728598 chen_ xh@nesc.cn 021-20361258 13120758587 Lilq@nesc. cn 021-20361112 18801903156 lirx@nesc.cn 021-20361133 18516728369 zhoujq@nesc.cn 021-20361133 13122617959 liuy q@nesc.cn 021-20361229 15213310661 jiny ue@nesc.cn 010-58034553 18515018255 lihan g@nesc. cn 010-58034557 18501954588 y inlulu@nesc.cn 010-58034555 13701194494 wenzc@nesc.cn 010-58034563 18501944669 zengy g@nesc.cn 010-63210813 18153683452 zhouy ing1@nesc.cn 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_xuan@nesc. cn 0755-33975865 15989508876 liuman@n esc.cn 0755-33975865 18516772531 wangquan@n esc.cn 0755-33975865 18620093160 zhoujy @nesc.cn 0755-33975865 18664323108 Chenli1@nesc. cn 021-20361229 18616369028 liy inyin@nesc.cn 021-20361229 15921911962 zhaojiahen g@nesc. cn ]

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