东北证券–房地产行业:怀来放开限购,百强房企6月销售持续超预期【行业研究】_研报

【研究报告内容摘要】 市场表现:本周申万房地产板块收于4257.19点,累计上涨9.27%,同期上证综指累计上涨5.81%,深证成指累计.上涨5.25%,沪深300累计上涨6.78%;横向对比,板块表现位于.上游。 公司动态:本周多家公司发布月度销售公告。金地集团6月签约面积173.9万方,同比+61.17%;签约金额338.2亿元,同比+61.66%; 1-6月累计签约金额1,016.3亿元,同比+18.73%。 荣盛发展6月签约面积136.27万方,同比+5.84%;签约金额15162亿元,同比+4.31%。 行业新闻:河北省张家口市怀来县的楼市调控政策出现松动,怀来县废止了62号文,住房限购政策已经取消,新房、二手房都可以购买。 个人购买该县住房,不再受套数限制。 土地交易:本周,土地市场数据统计6月23日-6月27日。全国100大中城市合计供应土地规划建筑面积1970.19万平米,合计成交土地规划建筑面积1844.31万平米,成交总量环比上升1.44%;土地成交楼面.均价为4325.00元怦米,溢价率80.32%。 重点事件点评: 6月30日,克而瑞发布2020年6月房企销售榜单。6月销售TOP30房企合计全口径销售金额9735.9亿元,同比增长18.33%,增速较上月提升6.47个百分点,环比增长35.07%,权益销售金额6891.3亿元,同比增长14.78%, 增速较上月提升5.44个百分点,环比增长32.42%。整体来看,二季度主流规模房企销售情况持续好于预期,主要得益于一季度因疫情而积压的购房需求滞后释放,规模房企抓住市场窗口期,在相对宽松的市场环境下,供货节奏及营销去化加速。考虑到市场尚处于恢复期、疫情不确定性犹存,前期积压的需求逐渐释放完毕,后期政策放松的边际效益下降,行业整体去化或将承压。但同时考虑到房企下半年推盘计划较往年更为积极,市场真实去化率好于市场预期,下半年尤其三季度房企销售仍有持续超预期可能性。 个股方面推荐业绩确定性强、资源卓越的一线房企:万科A、金地集团、保利地产、华夏幸福和招商蛇口;建议关注二线龙头房企:滨江集团、中南建设、蓝光发展、金科股份、荣盛发展和阳光城;持续看好龙头物管公司:碧桂园服务、保利物业、永升生活服务和招商积余。 风险提示:行业资金面超预期收紧;市场表现超预期下行

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[Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title] / 6 [Table_Summary] 4257.199.27% 5.81%5.25%300 6.78% 6 173.9+61.17%338.2+61.66%1-6 1,016.3 +18.73%6 136.27+5.84%151.62+4.31% 62 623-627100 1970.19 1844.311.44% 4325.00/80.32% 630202066 TOP309735.918.33% 6.4735.07%6891.3 14.78%5.44 32.42% A [Table_CompanyFinance] EPS PE 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E A 28.65 3.44 3.91 4.88 8.33 7.33 5.87 16.35 2.34 2.76 2.88 6.99 5.92 5.68 9.15 1.06 1.33 1.68 8.63 6.88 5.45 9.31 2.10 2.59 3.03 4.43 3.59 3.07 6.01 1.15 1.66 2.23 5.23 3.62 2.70 [Table_Invest] [Table_PicQuote] [Table_Trend] % 1M 3M 12M 9.94% 13.72% -0.88% -1.01% -5.31% -14.39% [Table_IndustryMarket] 134 23815 20867 9.37 2.07 25385 2227 % 79.17 [Table_Report] REITsREITs 2020-07-01 LPR 2020-06-29 2020-06-17 2020-06-08 2020-05-25 [Table_Author] S0550519100002 0755-33685875 wangxiaoy@nesc.cn 2020-07-06 2 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 1. …………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 1.1. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 1.2………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4 1.3………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4 2………………………………………………………………………………… 6 3. …………………………………………………………………………………………. 7 4. ………………………………………………………………………………….. 9 5.6 ……….. 10 1300 …………………………………………………………………………………………. 3 2 ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3 3 ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 8 4 …………………………………………………………………………………………. 8 5 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 6 …………………………………………………………………………………………. 8 7…………………………………………………………………………………… 8 8…………………………………………………………………………………… 8 9 ……………………………………………………………………………………… 9 1030 ………………………………………………………………………………. 10 1130 ………………………………………………………………………………….. 10 1 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4 2 ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 4 3 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6 4 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7 5 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 6 …………………………………………………………………………………………. 9 pWOAcXgYrVqQnR6M8Q6MtRnNpNoOjMpPrOlOqQpR6MpOnQxNrMtMwMrMrR 3 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 1. 1.1. 4257.199.27% 5.81%5.25%3006.78% 1300 Wind 2 Wind 4 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 1.2. (600606.S H)40.39% (603506.SH) *ST 1 1 (600606.SH) 40.39% (603506.SH) -11.21% 2 (600185.SH) 27.64% (002968.SZ) -6.97% 3 (600223.SH) 24.26% *ST(000981.SZ) -4.26% 4 (600657.SH) 21.29% (600246.SZ) -4.14% 5 (000732.SZ) 21.14% (600674.SH) -3.68% Wind 1.3. 20206 173.9 61.17%338.2 61.66%2020 1-6484.913.32% 1,016.3 18.73%20206 136.275.84%151.624.31%2020 1-6434.222.73%482.25 3.54% 297,221 760.425600/66.66 52.712600/54,910 5.539900/ 2 A 06/29 10 550%5 50% A 06/29 50%70.4 30.4 32050% 06/29 54173168.523.11 104169340.513.26 ()138,879 251.371.81297,221760.4 5 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 2.56 06/29 2019 10 2.87 2020 3 31 30.16 86.56 06/29 2020 5 31 749.01 2019 609.04 139.97 2020 1-5 2019 391.21 35.78% 20% A 06/30 66.6652.712600/ 06/30 LL15 /04 49,000 06/30 202063054,910 5.539900/ 07/01 201820202018 4,989.60 20204120206301,876.44 33.29%2020630 5,082.2490.16% 07/01 2019201929.89 103 07/01 202063086,334.00 07/01 20192,117,219,616 0.40846,887,846.40 07/02 2020620206173.9 61.17%338. 261.66%2020 1-6 484.913.32%1,016.3 18.73% 07/02 20206,20206 136.275.84%151.624.31%20201-6 434.222.73%482.253.54% 07/02 2019 12,168,154,385 0.40 4,867,261,754.00 07/02 2019 2019 12 31 1,862,520,720 10 3.00 558,756,216.00 2,615,138,590.47 07/03 2019 3,011,062,909 1.5 6 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 0.3 4,516,594,363.50 903,318,873 3,914,381,782 07/03 2019 1,007,282,534 0.38 382,767,363 07/05 20194,514,583,572 0.67 3,024,770,993.24 07/05 2019 2019 2,256,724,186 427,647 2,256,296,539 1.7 3,835,704,116.3 2. 20206 TOP10014517.233% 413.8% TOP100 9.6% 2020 71265%80% 5 3.5/ 50% 202081 3 20% 3 06/29 31555186.74 45%23 06/30 20206TOP10014517.233% 413.8% TOP1009.6% 06/30 62851-4 1-30.82%1-4300 07/01 2020610015461/ 0.53%0.2210015301/ 0.30%0.18100 7 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 2.34% 07/01 202020201-6TOP100 15169.8TOP1004021.2% 07/02 643.42// 0.36%2.02%3 07/03 705 100013181132989 07/03 20206401303.56 114.62% 40777.7859.67%46.63% 525.7840.33%583.33% 07/03 20206616% 25.9%18 8.4% 4 06/30 71 07/01 62 07/01 202071265% 80% 07/02 , 5 3.5/ 50% 07/02 202081 3 20% 3. 623-627100 1970.191844.31 8 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 1.44%4325.00/24.56% 797.623.43%56.84% 39.74% 52.685187/ 0.00%912.454968/ 25.04%879.183605/ 26.57% 3 4 Wind Wind 5 6 Wind Wind 7 8 Wind Wind 9 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 9 Wind 4. 5 () () (%) 20EB04 2020-07-02 AAA 2.0915 3.0000 7.7000 5.29 . 2001 2020-07-03 AA AA 5.0000 7.9000 5.29 . 20 CP001 2020-07-01 A-1 AA 5.2000 1.0000 3.6900 1.62 5.20. Wind 6 () () (%) () (%) 101900349.IB 19MTN001 1.7041 2,080,000,000.0000 4.1800 3.0384 102000277.IB 20MTN001A 2.6795 1,260,000,000.0000 3.0000 3.1794 102000014.IB 20MTN001 2.5164 660,000,000.0000 3.7600 3.4494 114432.SZ 1901 1.5683 600,000,000.0000 5.3000 4.8823 101900279.IB 19MTN001 0.6740 440,000,000.0000 7.2000 5.5014 101754059.IB 17MTN003 360,000,000.0000 4.8900 2.1045 012000668.IB 20SCP002 0.3989 320,000,000.0000 2.6500 2.3624 101551055.IB 15MTN001 0.0738 290,000,000.0000 4.6000 4.0769 10 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 012001022.IB 20SCP007 0.2186 270,000,000.0000 2.4000 2.4017 Wind 5. 6 6302020620206TOP30 9735.918.33%6.47 35.07%6891.314.78% 5.4432.42% 1-5-11%-31%-14%%-1%+11% 18% 1030 1130 810 752.5719.7600.9 63014 10%50% 1-6TOP101106.8 5.2%TOP30473.12.0%TOP50308.5 0.9%TOP100TOP2009.0%16.5%103.1 24.8TOP50 TOP51-100TOP101-2000.7%1% 11 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 12 13 72020630 20206 20196 20206 20196 1 810.0 820.0 -1% 569.6 614.4 -7% 2 752.2 510.3 47% 715.3 485.3 47% 3 719.7 668.0 8% 467.8 400.8 17% 4 643.0 600.9 7% 497.5 301.6 65% 5 542.0 508.8 7% 365 357 2% 6 541.2 478.4 13% 505.8 447 13% 7 412.0 466.2 -12% 370.8 419.6 -12% 8 376.4 239.7 57% 259.7 165.4 57% 9 338.0 209.9 61% 211.8 130.1 63% 10 326.5 282.0 16% 224.8 202.5 11% 11 318.0 272.8 17% 197 182 8% 12 302.0 284.9 6% 211.4 244.1 -13% 13 287.8 211.1 36% 202.6 147.7 37% 14 269.0 237.0 14% 181.7 166.2 9% 15 265.2 201.6 32% 147.9 111.2 33% 16 260.8 310.4 -16% 193.9 224.7 -14% 17 251.2 223.2 13% 138.2 122.8 13% 18 246.9 135.8 82% 172.8 144.7 19% 19 243.4 121.4 100% 146.4 57.6 154% 20 231.6 133.0 74% 181.3 114.7 58% 21 186.9 100.3 86% 43.1 53.6 -20% 22 185.3 136.3 36% 99 70.9 40% 23 175.7 153.6 14% 130.2 131 -1% 24 157.6 168.5 -6% 145.2 160.1 -9% 25 156.1 141.6 10% 85 137.6 -38% 26 153.7 144.4 6% 89.7 66.5 35% 27 151.3 100.5 51% 75.5 60.7 24% 28 148.9 125.9 18% 94.9 90.1 5% 12 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 29 143.8 112.0 28% 46.2 34.1 35% 30 139.7 129.4 8% 84.6 127.8 -34% 9735.9 8227.9 18% 6854.7 5971.8 15% 13 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 4200713 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 14 / 14 [Table_PageTop ] 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 021-20361121 13636606340 ruanmin@nesc. cn 021-20361229 17717370432 wuxiaoy in@nesc.cn 021-20361258 18221628116 qijian@n esc.cn 021-20361267 13262728598 chen_ xh@nesc.cn 021-20361258 13120758587 Lilq@nesc. cn 021-20361112 18801903156 lir x@nesc.cn 021-20361133 18516728369 zhoujq@nesc.cn 021-20361133 13122617959 liuy q@nesc.cn 021-20361229 15213310661 jiny ue@nesc.cn 010-58034553 18515018255 lihan g@nesc. cn 010-58034557 18501954588 y inlulu@nesc.cn 010-58034555 13701194494 wenzc@nesc.cn 010-58034563 18501944669 zengy g@nesc.cn 010-63210813 18153683452 zhouy ing1@nesc.cn 0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_ xuan@nesc. cn 0755-33975865 15989508876 liuman@n esc.cn 0755-33975865 18516772531 wangquan@n esc.cn 0755-33975865 18620093160 zhoujy @nesc.cn 0755-33975865 18664323108 Chenli1@nesc. cn 021-20361229 18616369028 liy iny in@nesc.cn 021-20361229 15921911962 zhaojiahen g@nesc. cn ]

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